Efficiency Rankings: The biggest overachievers and underperformers in European football so far in 2024/25
Efficiency Rankings: The biggest overachievers and underperformers in European football so far in 2024/25
IMAGO | Chris Wood has scored 18 goals in the Premier League this season for Nottingham Forest, who sit in a surprising third place.
As the 2024/25 season pauses for the international break, Off The Pitch highlights European football’s unexpected success stories and biggest surprises across the continent.
Off The Pitch has developed value-for-money tables for Europe’s six major leagues, using efficiency scores to compare each team's expected performance based on financial resources with their actual points total.
Why it matters: Football is about more than just trophies—how clubs perform relative to their financial situation can be even more revealing.
The perspective: Football has increasingly become a game of financial power. It is important to highlight clubs that punch above their weight, as they can serve as prime examples for others.
19 March 2025 - 5:05 PM
As club football pauses for the first international break of 2025, we have analysed which clubs are the most financially efficient and which are the biggest underperformers.
Our rankings are based on Off The Pitch’s Efficiency Ranking, which calculates a club’s expected points relative to its financial position. The algorithm determines expected points using key financial metrics, including the estimated wage bill for 2024/25, net transfer spending, squad valuation, and the wage-to-spend ratio.
Using this model, we identify the most over- and underperforming teams across Europe’s top five leagues, as well as the Championship. Since the model is universal, it enables comparisons across leagues, providing a broader perspective on club performance.
Top performers
Sunderland are currently the most financially efficient team across the selected leagues. Relegated from the Premier League to the Championship in the 2016/17 season, they dropped further to League One the following year.
In 2022, Louis-Dreyfus acquired a majority stake in the club, becoming the youngest chairman in English football. Since then, Sunderland have reached the play-offs once and are now in contention for another, currently sitting in fourth place.
Last season, Nottingham Forest finished 17th in the Premier League. This season, they have already amassed 54 points and currently sit in third place, making them serious contenders for a Champions League spot.
This also makes them the most financially efficient team in the Premier League. However, this is not due to frugal spending. In recent years, Forest have invested heavily in their squad to secure Premier League status. Now, with potential Champions League qualification on the horizon, their bold strategy appears to be paying off, completely transforming their outlook for the future.
Bournemouth have also excelled under the leadership of Andoni Iraola, currently sitting on 44 points. Based purely on financial data, they would have been expected to face relegation, yet they have completely defied those expectations.
The third most financially efficient team is the German side Mainz 05. In February 2024, Danish head coach Bo Henriksen was brought in to steer the team away from the relegation battle. Since then, he has completely turned things around, recently signing a contract extension, and Mainz are now unexpectedly pushing for European football, currently sitting in third place.
Another financially efficient Bundesliga team is FC Augsburg. Despite spending modestly, they have remained consistent and are currently in ninth place.
Looking to Italy, Bologna last year qualified for the Champions League for the first time since 1964. Despite selling key players such as Zirkzee and Calafiori in the summer, and facing the added challenge of European fixtures, they continue to thrive in the domestic league. With 53 points, they currently sit in fourth place.
Premier League underperformers
All three newly promoted clubs to the Premier League rank among the 10 worst-performing teams in terms of financial efficiency. Southampton, Leicester, and Ipswich have endured historically poor seasons, and statistically, the likelihood of any of them surviving at this point is less than 1 per cent.
Southampton are rock bottom, both in the league and in terms of efficiency score. Despite already being projected as the weakest team, they have still managed to underperform expectations, highlighting just how dire their situation is.
So far, they have accumulated only nine points. The record for the lowest-ever Premier League points total belongs to Derby County, who finished the 2007/08 season with just 11 points.
Leicester, meanwhile, look nothing like the team they were before their relegation in 2022/23. Following Enzo Maresca’s departure to Chelsea in the summer, they have gone through two managers. First, Steve Cooper, who was sacked in November, and now Ruud van Nistelrooy, who has struggled significantly.
Ipswich Town, arguably the most excusable of the three promoted sides, should still be able to compete more effectively given their financial resources. However, they too have been unable to cope with the demands of the Premier League.
Champions League finalist in trouble
Two historically top six Premier League clubs are also among the 10 lowest performers—Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United.
Tottenham’s defeat to Fulham last weekend marked their 15th loss of the season, their highest tally since the 2008/09 campaign.
However, they are still in the Europa League, where they have a chance to salvage their season. Winning the competition would not only secure silverware but also grant them a Champions League qualification spot, offering a lifeline after a disappointing domestic campaign
Manchester United find themselves in a very similar position to Spurs, having also struggled with injuries. However, one key difference is that they changed head coach, appointing Rúben Amorim in November. Like Tottenham, they still have a chance to redeem their season in the Europa League.
Finally, last year’s Champions League finalists Borussia Dortmund are also worth mentioning, as they find themselves in the bottom half of the Bundesliga table and at risk of missing out on European football for the first time since the 2009/10 season.
In February, they appointed former Bayern Munich manager Niko Kovač to turn things around, but so far, he has managed just two wins in six Bundesliga matches.
Despite their domestic struggles, Dortmund are still alive in Europe. After knocking out Lille in the Champions League round of 16, they now face FC Barcelona in the quarter-finals.