Analyses | Off The Pitch

Expected vs actual points: Europe’s biggest overachievers and underperformers in 2025/26

Off The Pitch’s end-of-season efficiency rankings reveal which clubs exceeded and fell short of expectations.

Off The Pitch model projects France to win World Cup 2026

We have simulated the 2026 World Cup 10,000 times, our model predicts that France are the most likely winners.

Europe’s record number of surprise champions prove titles can still be won without big spending

Nine clubs won their first domestic title in more than 10 years during 2025/26 with none being biggest spender

Italy and Germany fall behind rivals in share of most valuable players as governing bodies respond

Italian and German clubs have lost representation among the world’s 100 most valuable players.

Financial difficulties, scandals and disappointing results make Serie A the next top league under pressure

Serie A is under increasing strain as a leading European league with expenses outgrowing revenue.

After years of rapid growth: Multi-club ownership expansion stalls

After years of rapid growth, the presence of MCO groups at the top of global football has stalled

From Denmark to Argentina: The real factories of football's most valuable graduates

This analysis measures academy output across 315 clubs.

Inside the winter window: Teenage investment reshapes the market

Dominance of youth among the top-fee arrivals across multiple leagues points to a structural repricing.

Premier League squad value dominance challenges Champions League hierarchy

Fair market squad values shows the value of Premier League sides exceeds many Champions League participants.

The Champions League trophy race simulated by financial strength

The Champions League knockout phase has been simulated using a model based exclusively on financial indicators

European clubs face concentrated contract risk as high-value players enter final months

Allowing valuable players to leave without fees erodes clubs’ trading margins and restricts squad-planning.

€14.6 billion talent pool heading to the 2026 World Cup: How the qualified nations compare

We have analysed the squad valuations of the nations that have qualified for the World Cup.

Portugal’s surge, France’s fall: The post-window squad valuations

How squad valuations in the biggest leagues have shifted after the 2025/26 summer transfer window

Europe’s financial efficiency table highlights English dominance at the top and bottom

We measure efficiency scores by comparing expected points with actual points accumulated across the big five

Young player sales: Denmark leads as South America struggles to match success rates

We have analysed transfers of players aged 21 or under, sold for more than €5 million.

Transfer analysis: Big five money flows reveal the Premier League’s growing dominance

The biggest transfer window in football history has closed. This analysis breaks down where the money went.

From promise to peak: How age drives player values in Europe's top leagues

We examine how a player's age influences their market value.

The Premier League’s hidden drain: How injuries cost millions

Premier League clubs spent over €360 million on salaries for injured players in 2024/25.

Will squad market value shine through at the UEFA Women’s Euro 2025?

Using squad market value across all 16 teams as a data-driven indicator of success.

Premier League spending: How much are clubs really paying for every minute on the pitch?

This analysis ranks Premier League clubs by player expenses per minute, based on estimated 2024/25 squad costs